| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Boise State | 34-7 | 1399.8 | +70.6 | 1470.4 | 12.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Florida | 18-16 | 1470.4 | +73.0 | 1543.4 | 18.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Miami | 12-49 | 1543.4 | -20.8 | 1522.6 | 30.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | South Carolina State | 63-14 | 1522.6 | +0.0 | 1522.6 | 53.2% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | W | Charlotte | 54-26 | 1522.6 | +8.1 | 1530.7 | 87.4% |
| 8 | Oct 10 2025 | W | North Texas | 63-36 | 1530.7 | +46.4 | 1577.1 | 53.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 48-13 | 1577.1 | +6.7 | 1583.8 | 89.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Memphis | 31-34 | 1583.8 | -26.0 | 1557.8 | 37.8% |
| 12 | Nov 6 2025 | W | UTSA | 55-23 | 1557.8 | +26.2 | 1584.0 | 62.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Navy | 38-41 | 1584.0 | -34.2 | 1549.8 | 48.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | UAB | 48-18 | 1549.8 | +12.7 | 1562.5 | 88.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Rice | 52-3 | 1562.5 | +12.3 | 1574.8 | 81.2% |
| 18 | Dec 17 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 10-24 | 1574.8 | -40.3 | 1534.5 | 47.4% |